If, as the saying goes, "time flies when you're having fun", then the last two years have been the national equivalent of a two year long quadruple root canal. The Bush Era seems like ages ago as one bad headline after another passes through our lives. Unless there is a major October surprise, I'm cautiously predicting the elections this fall may be a '94 style power shift. I've read numerous articles that say this trend is being overstated, but all signs point to a powerfully discontented electorate. With democrats holding both legislative houses and the Presidency, they stand to be the biggest losers of this discontent.
I've heard noise from several Pundits on the right declaring total failure of the Democrats and Obama, and there's is some truth to that. His housing fix is a bust, the economy is no better, unemployment keeps stagnating, the missile defense system was scrapped with no concessions from Russia, we lost the olympics...but I digress. While there are lists of things you can lay at the feet of Obama and the democrats as failures, much of the discontent is actually due, in a greater measure, to the successes Obama has had in growing the government and advancing the causes of the left. The more the moderate/independent/swing voters see of real leftism, the more they reject it. Bush fatigue was one thing....a complete transformation of America, is quite another. It turns out, as I have often said, Americans are just not leftists (yet). Polls continue to show that roughly 40% of Americans view themselves as conservative, 36% say they are moderates, and a mere 20% consider themselves liberal. (
poll source) Another way to view this is to say 76% see themselves to the right of "liberal". This is why, as I read one article lament yesterday, democrats tend to have to distance themselves from the farther left ideologies of their party (to attract more voters), while the Republicans generally tend to align with the farther right ideologies. This is also why most Democrat politicians wont say they are for gay marriage, even though many are, or why they have to pretend to care about gun rights, etc. You don't see Republicans clamering to show they are for cap and trade, Obamacare, stricter gun laws, etc. So buyers remorse has set in, now that the moderates see the actions behind the rhetoric... Add to that the fact that it seems Obama's well documented speech giving ability has met the end of its limitations. So now the electorate gets their referendum on the direction of the country. Its a strange predicament that what the President considers his great successes, Health Care, spending bills, etc, are his biggest detriment. But they can't say that people did not try to let their voices of opposition and reluctance be heard. I would read articles on HuffPo and Politico that tried to spin the polls, but the people were very clear about their stance on the controversial bills...they were pushed through anyway. Now people are pissed. The plethora of missteps, flubs, gaffes, and a horrible Press Secretary have not helped the President either, as he has lost support in every single demographic in the last 20 or so months since he soared in the high 60s.
Now, lest Republicans get too confident...remember that they were on the receiving end of the same levels of anger and frustration a few years ago that lost them their majorities, and the Presidency as well. One of the reasons incumbents are struggling on both sides is precisely because the last 10 years have shown that both sides are not fulfilling their promises, nor the expectations of the electorate.
So what should the Republicans do after they win this time? This presents several problems. How do they work with Obama? What do they do differently than they have done in the past? How do they keep voters? What do the say to well founded charges of hypocrisy when it comes to rhetoric on fiscal policy?
Here are my thoughts:
First, Republicans truly need to clean their house. They need to hold themselves to be above reproach. There should not be any hint of a sniff of a whiff of scandal. (all politicians should be this way). Republicans are so easily brought down by the smallest things, they have to the extra mile to stay above the fray.
Republicans need to admit, where the failed in the past: Spending. The case has to be bravely made for real Prudent fiscal policy, balanced budgets, reduced deficits, and here's something novel, maybe some surpluss! (like the one the republicans worked with clinton on) Gov. Christie is doing a great job of making this case in New Jersey, we need more politicians who can be honest with us about the problems generations of their policies have caused, and the real solutions that need to be implemented to fix them.
Republicans need to reach out to minorities. Contrary to what Sen Reid says, there is no reason that minorities should not be split the same way that whites are, between the parties. Minorities often are entrepreneurs and religiously minded pro-lifers who just need to hear a well articulated case for the other option. I've known, conservative Gays, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and every other demographic...(and yes, i've also known liberal evangelical christians). There's no reason to continue to ignore the low hanging fruit of discontented minority populations that have heard the same tired promises for decades with little result in their communities. Democratic leadership has destroyed so many cities were there are major minority populations, the right message, and the right outreach can make a huge difference with minorities. If Republicans don't reach out, they will cease to have any national influence in the coming decades.
In the same vein as that, Republicans need to attract the young. The young have the MOST to loose with the deficit problems they are inheriting. This should not be a hard sell...but, well more about the young in a moment..
The Republicans need to articulate solutions to the problems that face our country, in a way that appeals to intellectuals, as well as the everyday citizen. The days of the republican being folksy and "everyday man" need to end. Not that they need to be elitist, but they need to be serious thinkers that articulate real solutions.
Honestly, (and I think very importantly) Republicans need to embrace more of the Libertarian platforms. Republicans 35 and under are more libertarian minded anyway, and many of the libertarian positions would attract a broad range of younger people who would otherwise be Demobots by age 22. Can anyone in our current Political field compare to the brilliance of Thomas Jefferson? So much of Libertarianism is Jeffersonian....localisim, limitied government, individualism, personal responsibility, liberty...etc. So, on some issues, maybe forget the Pat Robertsons sometimes, and ask yourself What Would Jefferson Do? Would Jefferson be for decriminalizing marijuana and prostitution? Come on, we all know the answer to that. "If it neither breaks my leg nor pics my pocket, what difference is it to me?" (yes i know thats a reference to his thoughts on religion, but it applies to this as well). As I see it there are three choices for the future....a more liberal republican party (like so called "conservatives" in Europe? no thanks)...a non-existent republican party (one party rule..booo!!) ....or a republican party that is more libertarian minded (YES!). Libertarian Republicanism is a far better future than so called "Neo Conservatism". The fact is, the Social issues that galvanized the Religious Right of Republicanism's past are not the future. The country is getting less, not more religious. As the older generations leave us, the Republican message will need the vessel that will speak to the relevant times we live in. Libertarians are uncompromising on the Constitution, there is so much liberty loving common ground. I think when the debates are framed in the right way, more and more republicans will come to accept some of the libertarian social policies and thus see an influx of new, true REPUBLICans.
So after November, I suspect that Obama will be forced to work with republicans, like clinton did, to pass more triangulated legislation...after he does so, his numbers, like Clinton, will likely rise. I half think he wants to have the republicans take over....its hard to stay popular when your agenda only pleases about 20% of the population...and that 20% is really never happy, no matter what kind of "progress" is made. Its much easier for the Democratic Presidents to govern from the Center ....bringing over some republicans who may not have voted for them, keep independent moderates happy, and throwing a bone at their base now and then.
More and more, I am thinking that this November will be one for the history books. I could be wrong, of course. But I think more importantly, this generation of politics can be a true turning point. I hope it turns to a place of unity and growth for the country and not a place of more divisive bitterness. Time will tell.
